Placing a dollar amount on the impact of unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, the London School of Economics (LSE) on Monday released a new report warning that $2.5 trillion of the world’s financial assets are at risk if the Earth’s temperature increases 2.5°C by 2100—and under a worst-case scenario, losses could reach as high as $24.2 trillion, obliterating the global economy.
“There is no scenario in which the risk to financial assets are unaffected by climate change—that is just a fiction,” said lead author Professor Simon Dietz, an environmental economist with LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
“It makes financial sense to a risk-neutral investor to cut emissions, and even more so to the risk-averse,” Dietz added.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, employs an integrated assessment model to tally the direct destruction of assets by extreme weather events, such as increased temperatures and drought, in addition to the overall economic slowdown predicted on a hotter planet as a result of mass human displacement.
According to the model, “the expected ‘climate value at risk’ (climate VaR) of global financial assets today is 1.8 percent [or $2.5 trillion] along a business-as-usual emissions path.”
However, there is a one percent chance that the VaR could reach 16.9 percent, or $24.2 trillion, which researchers note “would constitute a substantial write-down in the fundamental value of financial assets.” In other words, total market mayhem.
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